With the ongoing anti-circumvention investigation at the behest of Auxin Solar, the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) has slashed its solar PV forecast for the US market by 46%, fearing 24 GW of planned solar capacity not coming online in 2022 and 2023.
In case, the Department of Commerce decides to impose the tariffs against 4 Southeast Asian nations that supply a bulk of US solar module demand, it would lead to 34 GW lost deployment over the next 4 years.
As per the updated results of its survey to ascertain challenges to the US solar industry, SEIA estimates 318 projects accounting for 51 GW of solar and 6 GWh of attached battery energy storage are being cancelled or delayed, putting at risk 'fully $52 billion' of private investment at risk.
Further, in case the tariffs are imposed by the current administration by 2025 it would cause US solar capacity to fall 75 GW short of the pace needed to reach the goal of 100% carbon-pollution free electricity by 2035.
Jobs would be lost too as 70% of survey respondents say at least half of their solar and storage workforce is at risk. More than 200 companies said the risk pertains to all of their workforce.
"If tariffs are imposed, in the blink of an eye we're going to lose 100,000 American solar workers and any hope of reaching the President's clean energy goals," said SEIA president and CEO Abigail Ross Hopper. "Instead, the Commerce Department is on track to wipe out nearly half of all solar jobs and force a surrender on the President's climate goals."
Updated survey results, analyzing 730 responses, by SEIA are available on its website.
In the 1st week of April 2022, SEIA released preliminary findings of its Auxin Solar survey when it reported majority of the 200 respondents claiming panel deliveries as having been cancelled or delayed with the start of the investigation (see SEIA's Auxin Solar Survey Preliminary Results).
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