The year 2024 is likely to see the US witnessing solar and wind power generation overtaking electric power generation from coal for the 1st time ever, exceeding the latter by nearly 90 billion kWh, forecasts the country's Energy Information Administration (EIA).
While coal power generation declines, solar energy will continue to be the fastest growing source of US electric power generation as the country installs 23 GW new PV capacity in 2023. This 33% annual increase over 2022 will be followed by 39% YoY growth in 2024 when the EIA forecasts solar PV to grow by 37 GW. This capacity counts projects of over 1 MW capacity.
According to its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) December 2023, the EIA says solar energy generation will grow by 15% in 2023 and by 39% in 2024. It is accompanied by 9 GW of new US battery storage capacity in 2023, double from the capacity operational at the end of 2022.
"We forecast that coal-fired power plants will generate less in 2024 (599 billion kwh) than the combined generation from solar and wind (688 billion kWh) for the first time on record," reads the EIA report.
Growing renewable energy sources are not only pulling down coal power generation but also natural gas-fired capacity, which the EIA says had been the largest source of growth in recent years. In 2023, natural gas capacity is reported to have grown by 7% annually, but in 2024 it will go up by only 1% over 2023.
Recently, the SEIA and Wood Mackenzie forecast the US to install 33 GW new solar PV capacity in 2023 (see US Exited Q3/2023 With 6.5 GW DC New Solar Capacity).
The complete STEO outlook can be viewed on the EIA's website.
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