- IEO says Poland’s total installed solar PV capacity in 2021 may exceed 6 GW, with 2.153 GW likely to come up in 2021
- A lot of this capacity will come from prosumers, and the rest from larger projects awarded during 2018 and 2019 auctions
- By 2025, the aggregate may grow to 14.93 GW with a sustainable growth and balance coming between prosumers and PV power plant installations
Instytut Energetyki Odnawialnej (IEO) of Poland believes the Polish solar market is on its path to strong growth. The analysts see total installed capacity reaching 14.939 GW by the end of 2025, with annual additions of around 2 GW between 2021 and 2025. This is an upward revision of the renewable energy research institute’s previous forecast of the country’s total PV capacity reaching up to 7.8 GW by 2025 (see Poland: 2.5 GW Cumulative PV Capacity By 2020-End).
Most of the 2021 capacity of 2.513 GW anticipated by the IEO for the year is likely to come from prosumers, along with larger projects awarded during 2018 auction to come online this year since their completion deadlines were extended from 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Projects awarded during 2019 auction are also expected to get grid connected this year.
The IEO believes by the end of the year cumulative operational solar PV capacity of Poland may reach almost 6 GW.
“In 2022 and 2023 the share of PV farms in the total installed power will be equal to the share of micro-installations. The PV market will change from the current prosumer character to sustainable between professional PV power plants and prosumers. In 2023, the PV power will reach 8 GW,” stated the institute.
According to the Polish grid operator PSE till January 1, 2021 Poland had exceeded 3.9 GW cumulative solar PV capacity, growing 15% within a month (see Poland’s Cumulative Installed PV Capacity Exceeds 3.9 GW).
Under its Energy Policy approved in February 2021, Polish government expects this technology to be expanded to reach 5 GW to 7 GW by 2030, and 10 GW to 16 GW in 2040 (see Poland Approves Energy Policy Until 2040).