Even though the global solar PV manufacturing industry is battling overcapacities in the market with several companies adjusting their expansion plans, there is still not a full stop to new production capacities. Vertically integrated solar PV manufacturing plans are also being planned beyond China as countries attempt to reduce their supply chain dependency. There is also a growing interest in newer technologies and technology upgrades.
To understand the various changes taking place in the upstream industry, TaiyangNews brought together leading industry names for the 2-day Virtual Conference on Cell & Module Production Equipment & Processing Materials on May 7 & 8, 2024. Day 1 of the conference was devoted to cell production equipment and materials.
The keynote address on day 1 was presented by the International Roadmap for Photovoltaic (ITRPV) Steering Committee Chair Markus Fischer. Sharing the findings of the International PV Industry Roadmap, Fischer said the global solar production capacity at the end of 2023 was 1,000 GW, 97% of which is c-Si based. Global solar module shipments in 2023 grew to 502 GW, up from 295 GW in 2022. However, the average solar module spot market price at the end of 2023 reached $0.12/W, down from $0.23/W a year ago.
Looking out into the next decade, n-type material is expected to dominate the PV industry through 2034, whereas the share of p-type PERC will decrease to 10%. Fischer also reflected on the various products, materials and processes for solar wafers, cells, and modules during his keynote. Fischer said M6 wafer sizes are on their way out and will be phased out in 2024. While there is no clear winner among the various wafer sizes, ITRPV analysts believe the market will have M10/G12 dominating the future. As of now, rectangular wafer sizes appear to be the best fit for the rooftop solar segment.
In terms of wafer thickness, the current average thickness for M10 and G12 wafers of p-type is 150 µm, which is forecast to drop to 130 µm over the next decade. It is the n-type that's leading the industry in wafer thickness reduction for which the forecast is 100 µm by 2034. Currently, it is HJT that uses the thinnest wafers.
In terms of cell technologies, TOPCon, which is expected to capture 40% of the market share in 2024, is expected to become the dominant technology in the next 10 years with a 50% market share. The next leading technology would be HJT, increasing its share from 8% in 2024 to 20% in 2024. Back contact architectures to follow next, rising from 4% to 15% during the same timeline. Silicon-based tandem architectures are expected to be commercialized in 2026 and account for 10% of the market by 2034.
As for solar cell production, the ITRPV sees batch wet processing to remain a throughput leader during the forecast period. The industry will continue to make efforts to reduce silver consumption with tier 1 already attaining a considerable level of 7 to 8 mg/W for PERC, 12 to 16 mg/W for TOPCon and 17 to 20 mg/W for HJT. At the same time, the industry is continuing efforts to reduce precious metal consumption with strategies such as reducing the finger width and busbar-less layouts, which are likely to gain market share too.
In terms of cell efficiencies, that of n-type mono TOPCon will increase to 26.1% by 2034, up from 25% now. Tandem will enter mass production after 2025, reaching 31% cell efficiency by the end of 10 years.
Solar modules will see their technical lifetime grow to a standard 40 years, while module degradation over the 1st year will drop from 2% now to 1%. Efficient use of all materials will remain the key as the industry moves forward.
The Product Research and Development Director Yichun Wang of the world's largest solar wafer manufacturer LONGi presented the manufacturer's latest generation of high-efficiency silicon wafers.
Called TaiRay, Wang claims these wafers offer the advantages of tight resistivity distribution, better gettering and downstream performance, greater lifetime improvement and fewer defects. She pointed out that metal impurities in LONGi's TaiRay wafers are easier to be gettered. It also has stronger mechanical properties. These are also compatible with various cell technologies like the HJT back contact (HBC), TOPCon back contact (TBC), HJT, and TOPCon. Giving the analogy of a car, Wang said just like a car needs to be able to go on different paths, terrains, and directions, using various optimizations LONGi designed its TaiRay wafers to meet the requirements of various cell technologies.
The Chinese manufacturer is getting ready for full-scale mass production of these wafers in Q2/2024 (see Chinese Solar PV Giant Shipped 67.52 GW Modules In 2023).
Special Assistant to the CEO at the PV equipment maker S.C New Energy Technology Corporation, Homer Chen discussed the recent developments in PV cell coating equipment. A turnkey supplier to solar cell manufacturers, S.C New Energy caters to TOPCon, SHJ and perovskite technologies with its wet bench, PECVD, PVD and screen printer technology.
The manufacturer says it is striving to develop a mass production line for perovskite cells/modules, allowing customers to choose the best equipment combination. By mid-2024, it will establish a pilot line for perovskite glass modules and crystalline silicon tandem cells at the company's Changzhou fab. S.C New Energy counts to have delivered multiple types of perovskite equipment and large-size coating equipment to major perovskite module/tandem customers. Chen says it can deposit all capping films on top of perovskite in a vacuum; and with proper arrangement of coating modules, the entire perovskite solar cell (PSC) tandem cell can be manufactured.
However, it admits to certain bottlenecks to the enlargement of perovskite module sizing in terms of defects of the functional materials, significant differences between the spin coating and vacuum coating processes for perovskite devices in the laboratory, along with the challenge of high cost. Chen said that while the HJT CapEx is twice that of TOPCon right now, that of perovskite is up to 10 times more. Yet, the potential is huge as he sees tandem surpassing large-size modules in the future.
The Director of Technology—International Business Unit at high-end equipment provider Laplace, Josua Stückelberger, discussed his views on best-in-class equipment and turnkey solutions from the company for state-of-the-art TOPCon technology and beyond.
A producer of high throughput dry tools for the PV industry, Laplace says its equipment has been part of 15 world records for n-type TOPCon cell efficiency, including 26.89% in October 2023, without naming any company. JinkoSolar announced this efficiency last year (see New Solar Cell World Record From JinkoSolar). For TOPCon, the manufacturer focuses on LPCVD, which it claims works better than PECVD, especially with polysilicon deposition. Stückelberger claims the company's new-generation tools offer the highest throughput in the industry with proprietary and high-performance automation for all systems within the cell fab.
According to the company, its GEN4 tools have a capacity of 2,400 wafers/tube, while GEN5 has 2,880 wafers/tube for M10 wafers. On top, the company has solved the big bottleneck of single-side processing associated with LPCVD tools, implying the tools can support 2 wafers per slot, nearly doubling the throughput of the current levels. These 2 generations also have RMB 0.0053/W and RMB 0.0041/W as cost of ownership. He said 88.5 GW of the double-loading solution is now up and running in the industry, apart from an already operational capacity of 53 GW for single-loading.
Leadmicro's PV Division CTO Baochen Liao shared the company's all-in-one and integrated passivation solutions for TOPCon. During his presentation, he also touched upon the manufacturer's in-house total cell process solution called PE-TOPCon technology. Citing InfoLink Consulting, Liao said PECVD solutions now account for 55% of the market share out of 828 GW solar capacity, followed by 41% of LPCVD.
An expert in advanced atomic layer deposition (ALD) technology, Leadmicro recently launched its 8th Gen tube-ALD KF 20000S. Liao said this tube type ALD tool has 30% less volume in terms of its reduced length, width and height compared to the company's 7th Gen product. This also has 10% more throughput as 7th Gen leads to 20,000 pcs/hour, while the 8th Gen rolls out 22,000 pcs/hour.
Liao also discussed another 2024 launch from the manufacturer—5th Gen ZR5000X2 PECVD ToxPoly. It includes in-situ tunnel oxide, in-situ poly-Si doping, and a patented integration technology. As for its PE-TOPCon technology, by December 2024, it targets to launch PE-TOPCon 4.0 using bi-poly, poly finger, TBC poly thinning, and edge passivation elements.
Autowell's Laboratory Director Ning Chen tracked the progress of screen-printing metallization for advanced solar cells. Its 4-platform linear interactive printing has a cycle time of 0.8 seconds for 182 mm x 182 mm cells. The manufacturer says its screen printer for HJT half-cells is already in production and printing lines are now ready for mass production for TOPCon cells. It has also introduced 0BB solutions for the screen printing process. Chen said edge passivation is becoming important for high efficiency/Voc cells.
DKEM's New Technology Development Director Fangqing Guo talked about innovative metallization pastes enabling the TOPCon technology upgrade. He called the laser-enhanced firing (LEF) metallization technology—used only on the front side of cells—a game changer. The key to LEF metallization is glass frit, as it enlarges the laser window for higher efficiency benefit. Low AI or AI-free design with the new glass frit system contributes to better DH with LEF. According to Guo, paste innovation with firing/laser optimization reduces metal-included recombination rate (J0.m) and ρc of TOPCon, offering more possibilities to improve efficiency and reduce costs.
Executive Panel
Moderated by TaiyangNews Head of Technology Shravan Chunduri, the panel delved into technology trends in solar cell manufacturing. Panelists reflected on the challenges and opportunities these advancements provide.
Looking at the overcapacities across the value chain, strong CapEx of last year, followed by consolidation in the PV industry, LONGi's Yichun Wang said the PV market goes through several disruptive changes after every 3 years, but it continues to grow. In another 3 years from now, the focus of PV suppliers will be on offering better quality and better service, while bringing down costs. There will be an increased focus on customized offerings to the clients as PV application scenarios continue to expand.
Laplace's Josua Stückelberger agreed with Wang as he said the industry needs to have a steep learning curve to stay in step with the demands and requirements of clients. He noted that 2023 was an exceptional year for the global solar PV industry when it adapted to the fast-growing TOPCon technology.
Due to regulatory changes, like in the US, Europe, and India, there is a trend to establish a domestic vertically integrated solar PV supply chain with the latest technologies. While the Chinese are well-versed with these technologies and managing their equipment, markets outside China are increasingly seeking turnkey solutions, right from ingots to modules.
DKEM's Fangqing Guo believes the upgrade of solar cell technology from PERC to TOPCon in an extremely short period of time reflects the PV industry's exceptional growth and competitiveness. Some part of this capacity includes the transformation of existing PERC lines to TOPCon, as some manufacturers who got their PERC lines installed after 2020 left some room to upgrade their tools to TOPCon.
Leadmicro's Baochen Liao said there are no perfect technologies. Every single technology has scope for improvement, be it LPCVD or PECVD. The one major challenge in this domain is the requirement of a very sophisticated and competent team to handle the process.
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