Ember’s latest report predicts a 29% annual growth for global PV installations in 2024
The 5 markets of China, the US, India, Germany and Brazil will likely account for 75% of new additions
Solar can contribute 6 TW out of the 11 TW of renewable energy the world targets to achieve by 2030 if installation pace sustains
The world is on track to install 29% more solar PV capacity in 2024 compared to last year as Ember pegs it at 593 GW if the current rate of additions continues. China will account for 56% of this forecast with 334 GW DC. It will be an increase over the 292 GW solar capacity the world installed in 2023, representing around an 83% annual increase.
Geographical distribution
The latest report from climate and energy think tank Ember is titled Solar’s record breaking growth in 2024. It bases these volumes on the latest monthly solar capacity data for 15 countries that accounted for 80% of solar installations last year. Here, capacity additions increased by 29% during 7M 2024 year-on-year (YoY). If they continue to install solar at a 29% growth rate during the remainder of the year, they will install 478 GW.
Barring South Africa, Poland, Taiwan and Australia, 11 of these 15 nations are showing a higher number of installations on an annual basis.
During the initial 7 months of 2024, installations in China grew by 28% YoY, reaching the 2030 target of 1.2 TW combined wind and solar capacity 6 years early (see China Hits 2030 Wind & Solar PV Capacity Target 6 Years Earlier).
Driven by utility-scale solar, the US saw its PV capacity during H1 2024 increase by 55% YoY. The Indian market had an installation boost in March 2024, just before the government brought back the Approved List of Models and Manufacturers (ALMM) that mandates the use of only domestically manufactured solar modules for all government-related projects. Installations since then have been steady. Ember predicts the country to install 77% more PV this year with 23 GW capacity.
In Europe, 7M 2024 installations went up by 41% in the European Union’s (EU) 3rd largest solar market in 2023, Italy. Germany and the UK, on the other hand, have grown by 11%.
The report writers forecast Germany to exit this year with 17 GW capacity, consistent with the pace required to meet its new National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) target of 128 GW total capacity for 2026. This is possible if it continues the installation pace since the country brought in reforms to reduce bureaucracy and incentives.
In South America, Brazil is forecast to add more than 16 GW by the end of 2024.
Nonetheless, the 5 PV markets of China, the US, India, Germany, and Brazil are forecast to make up 75% of the global solar additions this year.
For the remaining countries, Ember crunched Chinese solar panel export numbers from January 2024 to July 2024 and arrived at an estimate of 115 GW to be installed by them during the year, with a range of 81 GW to 149 GW.
This analysis factors in higher additions in newer markets like Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. While Pakistan imported 12.5 GW of solar panels, Saudi Arabia bought 9.7 GW within the initial 7 months of this year. “If these panels are installed, it could put the two countries firmly in the company of established, large solar markets, like Germany, Brazil and India,” points out Ember.
Future additions
Even though solar has been on a roll since 2023 and is expected to add more GWs in 2024 than the entire global increase in coal power capacity since 2010 at 540 GW, Ember points out that the difference between predictions and actual annual installations has been growing wider. This shows how fast the PV deployment is growing.
For instance, Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s 592 GW forecast for this year’s PV installations is an increase from the 574 GW it predicted in March 2024 (see BNEF Pegs 2024 Global Solar PV Installations At 592 GW).
Again, SolarPower Europe (SPE) expects 22% YoY growth with 544 GW new PV additions this year in the medium scenario. The highest can go up to 647 GW according to SPE. This is a revision of its previous forecast of 401 GW (see SolarPower Europe Pegs Global Solar PV Growth In 2023 At 447 GW).
These predictions give hope that the world has its ambitious climate pledges within reach, it observes. By the end of 2030, solar power will likely generate a quarter of the world’s electricity, an estimated 6 TW out of the 11 TW targeted for renewable energy globally (see Over 120 Nations For 11 TW Global RE Target By 2030).
Nonetheless, Ember stressed that to sustain the pace of installations will need ‘concerted efforts to reduce barriers to solar integration, and to enable the growth of solar power in new markets.’
“There is already twice the manufacturing capacity available today than is being used. The constraint for future market growth is unlikely to come from solar panel prices. The key will be to ensure that countries have sufficient grid capacity to transport power to where it is needed, as well as develop battery storage capacity to complement solar outside of the sunniest hours. If these actions are taken, solar power could easily continue to surpass expectations throughout the rest of the decade,” explains Ember.