In 2023, the global grid-connected solar PV capacity grew by 87% annually with 447 GW, with 80% of the new installations concentrated in the top 10 markets, says SolarPower Europe (SPE) in a new report, while pointing to the 'severe disparity' in global renewable energy investment flows between developed and emerging economies.
Launched at Intersolar Europe 2024, SPE's Global Market Outlook for Solar Power 2024-2028 report attributes this growth to the overcapacity of solar modules, thanks to the significant increase in global PV manufacturing capacities. It led to a severe drop in prices, as much as 50%, for solar components. The global energy crisis of 2022 continued to act as a stimulant for governments, individuals and businesses to keep investing in the technology last year.
Increased availability of solar modules and services at affordable prices resulted in several projects from 2021 and 2022 coming online in 2023.
China, of course, drove the installations with 253 GW, with the rest of the world bringing in 'only' 194 GW. The US and Brazil, with 32.4 GW and 15.4 GW of new installed capacity respectively, were the other top 2 markets, according to SPE analysts. Germany, India, Spain, Japan, Italy, Australia and the Netherlands were among the remaining markets in the top 10, in that order.
This list is dominated by advanced economies with a total of 31 nations installing at least 1 GW annually, up from 28 nations in 2022, which also shows an increasing number of advanced solar markets.
Citing the World Energy Investment (WEI) report of the International Energy Agency (IEA), the SolarPower Europe report stresses the need for equitable global access to financing. It needs to be supported by the political will to deliver flexible energy systems, said SPE CEO Walburga Hemetsberger.
Going forward, SPE analysts predict another bumper year of solar PV installations in 2024. They forecast 22% annual growth with 544 GW of new capacity this year in the medium scenario expecting installations to be driven by cost improvements and the numerous benefits it offers. In the high scenario, the grid-connected capacity can increase by 45% annually to 647 GW, while only 3% growth is anticipated in the low scenario, with 461 GW.
The report writers do add a caveat that it will all largely depend on getting China's solar deployment right, which the report estimates at 299 GW, representing an annual growth of 18%.
In 2025, SPE's forecast is for annual global market installations to reach 614 GW under the medium scenario, with a 13% growth, followed by a 12% improvement to 687 GW in 2026, 12% to 773 GW in 2027, and 13% to 876 GW in 2028.
On a cumulative basis, the global solar power fleet is expected to exceed 2 TW by 2024, according to the report, having surpassed 1.6 TW in 2023. It will expand to 3.5 TW in 2026, 4.2 TW in 2027 and 5.1 TW in 2028, all under the medium scenario.
"By 2028, we could be installing more than 1 TW of solar a year. It's now about setting targets in line with reality, and addressing the familiar challenges – permitting, regulations enabling profitable business models, and the new frontier – system flexibility, through vast amounts of battery storage capacities," explained SPE's Director of Market Intelligence Michael Schmela. "The sector is ready to deliver the decarbonised energy system, and policymakers must wake up to the climate and energy security solution on their doorsteps."
The complete report is available for free download on SPE's website.
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