Despite predictions of a slowdown, China expects its 2025 solar PV installations to increase by 35.5% YoY
This year may see both solar PV and wind energy additions exceeding a combined 500 GW for the first time in the country
The government sees data center power use, with the rise of AI and cooling needs in times of extreme temperatures, as driving its guidance
The Chinese market is likely to defy all expectations of a slowdown in its solar energy installations in 2025 as the country’s State Grid Energy Research Institute and the National Climate Center project this year’s PV deployments to total 380 GW.
Even though the agencies don't specify, it should be in AC values since that's how China usually reports its power generation statistics.
This will be an annual increase of 35.5% over the 277 GW the market exited 2024 with. China recently exceeded the 1 TW milestone for cumulative installations (see China Solar Installations: From 100 MW In 2009 To 1 TW In 2025).
It will also be more than 100 GW over the projection made by the China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA) earlier this year, which attributed the anticipated slowdown to the country moving towards market-oriented pricing from June 2025. It expects this year to be the first in 6 years to see a decline for solar in the country (see China’s Solar PV Market To Slow Down To Around 255 GW In 2025).
Nevertheless, China has already installed close to 200 GW within the initial 5 months of the year, way ahead of the nearly 80 GW it reported for the same period last year (see China Installed Close To 80 GW New PV In 5M/2024).
Together, solar PV and wind energy will account for over 500 GW of installed capacity this year, a first for the world’s largest renewable energy market, according to the new report by the Chinese government agencies released recently. This includes 140 GW of wind energy capacity, which will be a record high, representing a 77.1% annual growth over the previous year for this technology. Note that US President Donald Trump recently quipped, “I have never seen a wind farm in China.”
Among other power generation technologies, according to local media reports, the Chinese agencies project new additions of 127 GW of thermal power (119.7% YoY increase), 5.19 GW of nuclear power (31.9% YoY increase), and 13.61 GW of hydropower capacity (1.2% YoY decrease) in 2025, as per the China Electricity Supply and Demand Analysis Report (2025).
“It is expected that the scale of electricity consumption for cooling will remain high due to the temperature factor. It is expected that the balance of national electricity supply and demand will be tight, and the supply and demand will be tight during local peak hours,” explained State Grid Energy Research Institute’s Ji Guoqiang.
Additionally, the rapid rise of artificial intelligence is also contributing to the rising demand for electricity. According to the report writers, China estimates the power consumption of data centers in the country will reach 163.7 billion kWh in 2025 and 1,055.4 billion kWh in 2030, accounting for 1.6% and 7.8% of the total power consumption, respectively.
The Chinese government is also working with the country’s solar industry to promote high-quality development in the sector, which is reeling with overcapacity challenges.
In a recent meeting with industry representatives and the CPIA, the Chinese Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) emphasized the need to curb disorderly and low-price competition through legal and regulatory means, which some in the industry see as hinting at possible consolidation in the sector.
It advised the companies to improve their product quality and phase out outdated capacity (see China Solar PV News Snippets).
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