A recent PRIED report says swarm grids can connect household solar and batteries for local peer-to-peer electricity sharing in Pakistan
The study finds swarm grids technically feasible in both rural Tharparkar and urban Islamabad
Urban projects show stronger commercial potential, while rural deployment may need targeted transitional financial support
Pakistan could leverage its rapidly growing rooftop solar market to establish a new decentralized electricity model based on swarm electrification, according to a study by the Policy Research Institute for Equitable Development (PRIED).
Calling it an optimal model for Pakistan, PRIED says the approach could enable communities to share surplus solar power, while boosting the country’s energy security and reducing its energy import dependency.
The institute describes swarm electrification as an organic, decentralized energy model that connects household solar and battery energy storage systems (BESS) into local peer-to-peer (P2P) electricity networks, creating small swarm grids.
Unlike a centrally planned mini-grid, a swarm grid grows organically as solar-equipped households connect and share surplus electricity with neighboring homes that cannot afford their own solar systems, explains PRIED.
These can essentially function as decentralized virtual power plants (VPP), addressing reverse power flow to the traditional distribution networks that are not designed to accommodate the growing influx of solar energy. Eventually, these swarm grids could grow into a larger regional grid that could later be connected to the national grid.
Since Pakistan emerged as a surprise solar market in 2024, when the country imported 16 GW worth of Chinese solar PV modules, PRIED claims the country’s cumulative solar panel imports exceeded 50 GW in 2025. An Ember and Renewables First report earlier stated that distributed solar met all of Pakistan’s electricity demand growth between FY23 and FY25, but the country now needs affordable electricity, storage and grid upgrades to sustain future electrification (see Pakistan's Distributed Solar Drives Electricity Demand Growth).
Pakistan is forecast to install 27 GW of cumulative rooftop PV capacity by 2030, driven by residential and C&I segments, according to a TaiyangNews analysis (see Pakistan: Rooftop Solar Helps Tackle Fuel Supply Disruptions).
According to PRIED’s estimates, around 33 GW of solar capacity had been installed across different sectors, while approximately 18% of households had installed solar panels according to the Household Income Economic Survey 2025 cited in the study. This leaves around 80% of households still relying on the grid.
This uneven distribution of solar installations also creates an equity problem, the report writers highlight. They explain, “As solar-owning households buy fewer units from the grid, they shift a larger share of the system's fixed costs onto non-solarised households and businesses that remain dependent on the grid while receiving few of the financial benefits of the solar transition — with some spending as much as half their disposable income on electricity bills in peak summer months.”
Additionally, the country needs to address the growing challenge of the duck curve, which leads to curtailment challenges for solar.
PRIED argues that the next challenge, therefore, is not simply adding more solar generation, but connecting, coordinating and making better use of the distributed assets already installed. It explores swarm electrification as a ‘bottom-up’ alternative to address these concerns.
Under the swarm-grid model, PRIED says surplus solar can be first made available to nearby consumers rather than automatically flowing back to the wider grid. This could reduce reverse power flows and ease pressure on the network, especially during high solar generation periods. Batteries could further shift daytime solar into evening consumption.
It also says that swarm grids “create an arbitrage opportunity for a community to share electricity, enabling them to fund battery storage at their own expense and sized appropriately for the need in each neighborhood”.
“Since the national grid also suffers from low reliability and limited resilience, swarm electrification can make better use of existing solar generation and expand access to affordable electricity for households without solar systems, especially in remote regions,” reads the report.
In its study titled Harnessing Pakistan's Solar Revolution: A Techno-Economic Assessment of Swarm Electrification, PRIED assessed swarm electrification in two rural villages Thario and Khario, in Sindh’s rural Tharparkar, and in Islamabad's Sector G-13 area.
Using household surveys, network load-flow analysis and household-level economic modelling, it found technical feasibility for swarm grids in both rural and urban settings. However, it is a different story when it comes to economic feasibility.
The report says urban swarm grids appear more ‘immediately attractive’ commercially, while rural deployment requires targeted financial support to overcome initial economic barriers.
Analysts don’t argue for permanent subsidies, but recommend transitional incentives or other targeted financial mechanisms to help establish rural distributed-energy networks. Additionally, they call for a regulatory framework for a sustained and orderly growth. For now, PRIED also recommends starting with a pilot under regulatory sandboxing instead of waiting for perfect market conditions.
The complete report is available for free download on PRIED’s website.
