BloombergNEF forecasts global solar installations to fall 0.9% in 2026 to 649 GW, down from 655 GW in 2025
S&P Global Energy also expects a contraction, projecting less than a 10% YoY decline, with China’s additions dropping from about 287 GW AC in 2025 to around 218 GW AC in 2026
While BloombergNEF expects the market to rebound in 2027 with 688 GW annual additions, S&P expects global cumulative PV capacity to double over the next 5 years
The world is set to witness the 1st annual decline in global solar PV additions in nearly 2 decades in 2026, even though it will likely be a slight decrease of 0.9%. According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BloombergNEF), installations of 649 GW next year will be lower than the 655 GW expected this year.
According to the market intelligence and research group report, the decline will be driven by policy changes in the world’s 2 major markets – China and the US.
Chinese installations this year were majorly impacted by the country’s move to a market-based pricing mechanism, a shift away from its successful feed-in tariff (FIT) regime. After a major haul till May 2025, monthly PV additions slowed down considerably. Between January and October 2025, China installed over 252 GW AC solar capacity (see China Exceeds 252 GW AC Solar PV Capacity In 10M 2025).
BloombergNEF analysts also see the expected slowdown in the US, with tightening of federal permitting rules for solar and phasing out of incentives, and growing uncertainty as impacting the global total.
Earlier this year, while speaking at the TaiyangNews webinar on Solar Market 2024 Review & 2025 Outlook, BloombergNEF Lead Solar Analyst pegged 670 GW DC capacity additions in 2025 (see BloombergNEF Forecasts 670 GW DC New Global Solar PV Installations In 2025 During TaiyangNews Event).
Nevertheless, installations will rebound in 2027 with 688 GW capacity, according to the analysts.
S&P Global Energy also agrees with the BloombergNEF assessment that the global solar PV market will experience its 1st annual decline ever in 2026. However, its outlook is more subdued as it projects solar growth peaking (for now) and an annual drop of less than 10%. It expects new global solar installations in 2025 to exceed 500 GW AC, owing mainly to the slowdown in the Chinese market.
S&P analysts expect China’s annual solar PV additions to fall from 286.67 GW AC in 2025 to 217.9 GW AC in 2026 due to its shift to auctions. China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA) forecasts between 270 GW AC and 300 GW AC capacity for the market in 2025 (see CPIA Revises 2025 China Solar Projections Up To 300 GW AC).
S&P forecasts North America to add 34.74 GW AC capacity in 2025, Europe 78.22 GW AC, and the rest of the world another 133.76 GW AC. In 2026, these regions will likely add 38.79 GW AC, 87.49 GW AC, and 163.43 GW AC, respectively.
Analysts add that despite this contraction, the world’s cumulative PV capacity is expected to double over the next 5 years with the addition of 2.8 TW between 2026 and 2030, supported by emerging markets and continued innovation, including faster deployment of battery energy storage systems (BESS). In contrast, it took the world 16 years to install 2.4 TW solar PV.
“The industry faces a new dynamic — growth without the guarantee of ever-increasing annual volumes — forcing consolidation and strategic shifts. But low module prices and solar’s inherent scalability will continue to unlock new markets,” points out S&P’s Horizons Top Trends 2026 report.
TaiyangNews will conduct a webinar on Solar and Storage market 2025 Review & 2026 Outlook on January 13, 2026. Details will be available soon on our website.
