China’s solar PV installations in the first two months of 2026 declined more than 17% YoY to 32.5 GW AC
The slowdown in the new year follows record additions of nearly 317GW AC in 2025, driven partly by a rush to secure FIT incentives before the shift to market-based pricing
Industry forecasts suggest China’s annual installations are likely to decline in 2026, which might also lead to the first global solar market contraction in years — but the Middle East war might turn the tide
China recorded more than a 17% year-on-year (YoY) decline in solar PV installations in the first two months of 2026. The slowdown marks a weaker start to the year compared to the same period in 2025, reflecting softer early-year deployment in the world’s largest solar market, as widely projected.
Against the 39.47 GW AC reported by the National Energy Administration (NEA) for January–February 2025, the country grid-connected 32.48 GW AC in the same period in 2026. This is even lower than 36.72 GW AC during the first 2M 2024 (see China Starts 2025 With Almost 40 GW New PV Installations).
This decline was expected though as the country adjusts to the shift from lucrative feed-in-tariffs (FIT) to market-based pricing reforms. Thanks to the rush to avail of FITs, China’s annual solar PV installations peaked at a record 315.07 GW AC in 2025, including more than 92 GW AC installed in May alone.
Monthly deployments then steeply dropped to 7.36 GW AC in August before picking up again, reaching 40.18 GW AC in December. Most provinces achieved their installation targets in 2025. The NEA updated the annual installation figure from 315.07 GW AC to 316.57 GW AC in February this year (see China Solar PV News Snippets).
For this year, the China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA) projects annual installations to decline between 24% and 43% YoY. This will be its 1st annual decline in over 7 years, contributing to a global total of 500 GW AC to 667 GW AC, before rebounding from 2027 onward (see CPIA: China Solar Installations To Dip In 2026 Before Resuming Growth).
Meanwhile, BloombergNEF reported last December that Chinese PV installations could reach 273 GW AC in 2026. Globally, it expects 0.9% contraction to 649 GW from 655 GW in 2025. S&P Global projects installations around 218 GW AC (see Global Solar PV Installations Set For 1st Annual Decline In 2026).
If China installations drop this year along with an expected decline in the US market, it will also be the first year of negative growth in global PV markets. InfoLink Consulting projects 2026 global annual PV module demand to decline between 529 GW DC to 624 GW DC.
At the end of February 2026, China’s total installed power generation capacity increased 15.9% YoY to 3.95 TW out of which solar’s share was 1.23 TW (33.2%+ YoY), while that of wind was 650 GW (22.8%+ YoY).
China’s 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030) prioritizes expanding clean energy infrastructure, with 10 major bases for wind, solar, hydropower, and offshore wind to support a shift away from fossil fuels. However, Frank Haugwitz of Apricum—The Cleantech Advisory estimates solar deployment to slow in the near term due to higher raw material costs, grid constraints, and lower power tariffs.
The question now is if the Middle East crisis drags on, could it push the Asian giant into building more renewables, and faster to boost electrification and decarbonization.
