China has raised its wind and solar capacity target to 3.6 TW (AC) by 2035, over 6 times 2020 levels
Annual installations may reach 360 GW (AC), though forecasts suggest China could exceed this sooner
China also commits to exceeding a 30% share of non-fossil fuel energy, and promoting carbon trading and new energy vehicles
China plans to increase its cumulative installed solar PV and wind energy capacity to 3.6 TW (AC) by 2035, more than 6 times the 2020 figure of over 535 GW (AC). This is the country’s new Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) announced by President Xi Jinping at the United Nations Climate Change Summit.
China had previously set itself a combined target of 1.2 TW (AC) for both these power generation technologies by 2030, but managed to achieve it 6 years early (see China Hits 2030 Wind & Solar PV Capacity Target 6 Years Earlier).
Since then, there has been an expectation that China will announce higher ambitions. The World Bank had wanted it to increase the 2030 wind and solar target to 1.7 TW, translating into up to 120 GW of annual additions.
Now, with the updated target of 3.6 TW (AC) for 2035, and an estimated 1.8 TW (AC) to be operational by the end of 2025, China would need to install around 212 GW (AC) per year of new installations annually as of 2026. It is not clear what the individual targets will be for both technologies, but given that solar installations will outpace wind as in the past – let’s assume a share of 2/3 – it would result in only 150 GW of PV additions per year for the coming 10 years. That’s less than half of what leading market analysts from BNEF, S&P, or SolarPower Europe forecast (see graph).
In fact, the country’s State Grid Energy Research Institute and National Climate Center project China’s 2025 solar PV deployments to total around 380 GW (AC) in June while the China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA) increased its February forecast from up to 255 GW AC for this year to 300 GW AC in July see CPIA Revises 2025 China Solar Projections Up To 300 GW AC).
Ember Co-Founder Dave Jones echoes the thought. He says even if China continues to install at the very high rate of 278 GW (AC) of solar and 80 GW of wind reported for 2024, the country will likely reach 3.6 TW (AC) by 2030 itself. It then remains to be seen how much more it can install beyond that.
China’s cumulative installed solar PV capacity is already well over 1 TW (AC) as it reported this milestone at the end of May 2025 (see China Solar Installations: From 100 MW In 2009 To 1 TW In 2025). At the end of July 2025, its total installed solar PV capacity reached 1.11 TW (AC) even as the pace of monthly additions declined following the rush for installations in May to beat the deadline for feed-in tariffs before the new solar market design was launched in June (see China’s July 2025 Solar PV Additions Drop Further To 11 GW).
Nevertheless, it is heartening that China continues to take the lead in the energy transition, in contrast to the US pulling back. At the same summit, President Donald Trump called carbon footprint a ‘hoax’, windmills ‘pathetic’, and advised other countries to get away from the ‘green energy scam’.
On the other hand, Xi Jinping said, “Addressing climate change is an urgent and long-term task. Let us act proactively to realize the beautiful vision of harmonious coexistence between man and nature, and protect our shared home, Earth!”
At the summit, the world’s largest renewable energy market also committed to increasing the share of non-fossil fuels in total energy consumption to over 30%, and lowering its economy-wide GHG emissions by 7% to 10% from their peak levels. It pledged to have new energy vehicles become the mainstream of new vehicle sales. President Jinping added that a national carbon emissions trading market will cover major high-emission industries.
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